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Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)

 

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Why Lloyds is JP Morgan's top tip for 2017
Lloyds (LLOY) is the most widely-owned share in the country, so investors up and down the country will be hoping the high-street lender does well in 2017. Signs are they may get their wish if recent performance is anything to go by, and some serious players are starting to give their backing.

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Brexit wiped out over a third of the bank's market cap through June and July, and it's been sideways trading, mostly below 60p, ever since.

However, it stood out among the domestic lenders in the recent stress tests and December has been a revelation. Over the past three weeks, the share price has risen as much as 12% at 64.54p, a six-month high.

And, yesterday, it had the confidence to buy the MBNA UK credit card business for £1.9 billion. The deal certainly looks affordable, and buying this higher margin business should limit any possible impact on future dividend payments at Lloyds.

Now, and after UBS recently included Lloyds in its "most preferred" list, JP Morgan analyst Raul Sinha has named Lloyds as his top pick for 2017.

Following talks with the high street lenders, he thinks the current operating environment remains resilient with limited impact from the Brexit vote so far.

"From a bottom up perspective, the outlook for bank earnings is more balanced than what was feared in the immediate aftermath of the referendum as rising bond yields have reversed a significant proportion of the negative structural hedge impact on net interest income (NII)," says Sinha. "However, asset quality, which has so far not impacted earnings, could start to turn in 2017."

And Sinha believes Lloyds is best positioned for a positive surprise on dividends.

That's because Lloyds boasts a current Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.4% and has guided for a further 50 basis points (bps) in the fourth quarter. Sinha pencils in 15.8% by the end of 2018 after a cumulative dividend per share of 9.65p – 2.15p for the second half of 2016, 3.5p in 2017, and 4p a year later.

"We believe [dividend] prospects are positive as the group's CT1 generation is well above that of other UK banks at c200bps per annum. If the capital return above 13% guidance is taken literally, FY 2016 dividend per share including special could be as high as 4.7p," says Sinha.

"Lloyds' strong capital position provides a material cushion to absorb further regulatory changes," he adds, while suggesting negativity around margins is overdone.

"Management guidance of 270bps NIM [net interest margin] in 2016 is supported by i) deposit repricing as group deposit costs are 78bps and ii) recent Tier 2 bond repurchase to add as much as 5bps (c£250 million) to NIM."

And asset quality remains robust, we're told. "At our recent conference, Lloyds management indicated that asset quality remains robust across businesses," writes Sinha.

"Rising UK impairments remains a key bear thesis for Lloyds given its exposure to UK (>90% assets in UK) and we feel comfortable in the near term. We expect impairments to rise to 37bps in 2017 (consensus 41bps) and we see risks to the upside."

After upgrading Lloyds to 'overweight' last month, JPM sticks with a price target of 68p and forecasts a 6% dividend yield for 2017, rising to 6.8% the year after.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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